Executive Summary
This report provides principles and practices than can be applied in the assessment of influence activities and contexts. The aim is to outline means of usefully operationalising concepts of influence by providing tangible and targeted methods to identify, describe, analyse and evaluate influence operations and to assess vulnerabilities and responses to malign influence.
It is the companion volume to the report Social Influence: Multi-level Influence for Engagement and Resilience, which outlines social influence conceptually at micro, meso and macro levels. Where the earlier report focuses on how we can understand what influence is and does, this report examines how influence can be seen and known.
Without indicators, decisions about planned activities, resource allocations, training needs and the like are at the risk of being made based on untested assumptions, the habits of past practice, the convenience of easily available options, or the demands of an unaccountable authority.
With useful, relevant, appropriate, targeted indicators, assumptions can be tested, options considered, new scenarios explored, changed circumstances taken into account, and, ultimately, crucial – and often costly – decisions guided by good information and careful analysis.
This report aims to support such decisions. Its purpose is to provides insights and direction to those involved in
- planning and evaluation of strategic communications and information operations in the context of diplomacy, international relations, defence, and national security; and
- policy development in public diplomacy, military public affairs, countering malign influence and disinformation, and related areas.
It is divided into two sections: indicators in principle, and in practice.
Principles of influence indicators
The first section, chapters 1-5, includes an introduction that outlines some fundamental empirical concepts for observing, recording, exploring and analysing influence.
Three substantial chapters develop this at micro, meso and macro levels. The micro scale (chapter 2) is based on fundamental conceptual principles and empirical approaches derived from social psychology. The meso scale (chapter 3) deals with influence in, and between, groups, networks and communities. The macro scale (chapter 4) considers ways of identifying forms of influence at the level of the nation and in international relations.
An additional chapter (chapter 5) explores indicators in the context of countering malign influence activities, based on a variety of disciplines and approaches including psychology, content analysis, media studies and the political economy of social media platforms and digital marketing.
Influence indicators are ways of seeing and knowing influence in three aspects:
- Attributes/Assets: what makes an actor influential, what makes a target vulnerable or resilient to influence;
- Actions: how does an actor (seek to) influence others; and
- Outcomes: what are the impacts and effects, on actors, of influence actions.
There are multiple, varied ways to answer these questions. Generalisability is difficult and can be sub-optimal; bespoke options based on specific contexts, intentions and threats are preferred. Fundamental recommendations are, however, possible:
Multiple forms of data allow for better analysis: relying upon a single set of data, or form of analysis, or outcome metrics should be avoided; using multiple data sets and analytical approaches and triangulating them is highly beneficial.
Higher quality data allows for better analysis: the quality of the data matters, with issues of sampling, bias and generalisability needing to be critically assessed.
Consideration of the analytic framework allows for better analysis: conclusions drawn from data should be understood from the perspective that all studies gather evidence and interpret it in ways that privilege certain tools and processes, with all analytical frameworks having certain limitations.
Big numbers appear impressive and gain attention. However, influence effects are often small, vary between populations, emerge over time, and are transitory or cumulative. These small effects may be decisive; they are often more difficult to see.5
Influence indicators in practice
In the second section, chapter 6 looks at tools and techniques used to identify, measure, track, observe, and otherwise interrogate and seek to understand influence as actions, as capabilities, and as effects. It is a selected and comprehensive list of methods that will suit most efforts.
Chapter 7 posits means to integrate these tools into coherent, organised and (in some cases) standardised means of incorporating data and analysis in ways that are applicable for specific purposes, namely planning and evaluating influence activities, or assessing resilience and vulnerabilities to influence efforts, or understanding the environments and contexts in which influence operates.
How different readers might use this report
Readers interested in how to measure effects can focus initially on the Introduction, Toolbox and Campaign framework. Those seeking to understand how to assess vulnerabilities and resilience to influence should initially examine Chapters 2-4, that is, the micro, meso, macro chapters. Readers concerned with how to assess and respond to malign influence are directed initially to Chapters 5 and 7. Those interested in how to plan an influence campaign should start with Chapter 7.
The report concludes with a summary of its content and findings, and some recommendations for its application for policy and planning, for practitioners and for researchers.