References

Introduction

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Influence Indicators in Principle

Micro-level indicators

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Meso-level indicators

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Macro references

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Countering Malign Influence

Altay, S., Berriche, M., & Acerbi, A. (2023). ‘Misinformation on misinformation: Conceptual and methodological challenges.’ Social Media + Society, 9(1). 1-13.

Allen, J., Howland, B., Mobius, M., Rothschild, D., & Watts, D. J. (2020). Evaluating the fake news problem at the scale of the information ecosystem. Science Advances, 6(14), e3539.

Ahmad, W., Sen, A., Eesley, C., & Brynjolfsson, E. (2024). Companies inadvertently fund online misinformation despite consumer backlash. Nature 630, 123–13.

Anderson-Davis, S. (2024). ‘“Pink Slime Journalism” and a history of media manipulation in America’ Colombia Journalism Review. https://www.cjr.org/tow_center/pink-slime-journalism-and-a-history-of-media-manipulation-in-america.php

Ardia, D. S., Ringel, E., Ekstrand, V. & Fox, A., (2020). Addressing the Decline of Local News, Rise of Platforms, and Spread of Mis- and Disinformation Online: A Summary of Current Research and Policy Proposals. UNC Legal Studies Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3765576

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Eady, G. Paskhalis, T., Zalinksky, J., Bonneau, R., Nagler, J. & Tucker, J.A. (2023). Exposure to the Russian Internet Research Agency foreign influence campaign on Twitter in the 2016 US election and its relationships to attitudes and voting behaviour. Nature Communications, 14(62), 1-11.

Gehl, R. W. & Lawson, S. T. (2022). Social Engineering. Cambridge and London: MIT Press.

Green, Y., Gully, A., Roy, A., Roth, Y., Tucker, J.A. & Wanless, A. (2022). Evidence-based Misinformation Interventions: Challenges and Opportunities for Measurement and Collaboration. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace / ESOC: Empirical Studies of Conflict. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/01/evidence-based-misinformation-interventions-challenges-and-opportunities-for-measurement-and-collaboration?lang=en

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McBride, M.K., Faber, P.G., Haney, K., Kannapel, P.J., & Plapinger S. (2024) Evidenced-based Techniques for Countering Mis-/dis-/mal-information. Centre for Naval Analysis. https://www.cna.org/reports/2024/03/a-primer-on-countering-mis-/dis-/mal-information

Mcclain, C. (2021). 70% of U.S. Social Media Users Never or Rarely Post or Share about Political, Social Issues. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/04/70-of-u-s-social-media-users-never-or-rarely-post-or-share-about-political-social-issues/

Miller, C. (2024). Directing Responses against Illicit Influence Operations (D-RAIL). EU Disinfo Lab. https://www.disinfo.eu/publications/directing-responses-against-illicit-influence-operations-d-rail/

Newman,N., Fletcher, R., Robertson, C.T., Ross Arguedas, A. & Nielsen, R.K. (2024). Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2024. https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2024

Pamment, J. (2022). A Capability Definition and Assessment Framework for Countering Disinformation, Information 74

Influence, and Foreign Interference. Riga: NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/a-capability-definition-and-assessment-framework-for-countering-disinformation-information-influence-and-foreign-interference/255

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Recorded Future. (2023). Threat Analysis: Obfuscation and AI Content in the Russian Influence Network “Doppelgänger” Signals Evolving Tactics. https://www.recordedfuture.com/russian-influence-network-doppelgangers-ai-content-tactics

Recorded Future. (2024a). Cyber Threat Analysis: Russia-Linked CopyCop Expands to Cover US Elections, Target Political Leaders. https://www.recordedfuture.com/copycop-expands-to-cover-us-elections-target-political-leaders

Recorded Future. (2024b). Threat Analysis: Sombres Influences: Russian and Iranian Influence Networks Target French Elections. https://www.recordedfuture.com/russian-and-iranian-influence-networks-target-french-elections

Roozenbeek, J., Culloty, E. & Suiter, J. (2023). ‘Countering misinformation: Evidence, knowledge gaps, and implications of current interventions’, European Psychologist, 28(3): 189-205.

Roozenbeek, J., Van der Linden, S. & Nygren, T. (2020) ‘Prebunking Interventions Based on

“Inoculation” Theory can Reduce Susceptibility to Misinformation across Cultures.’ Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/global-vaccination-badnews/

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Overview

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The Indicators Toolbox

Aleksejeva, N. (2023). Narrative warfare: How the Kremlin and Russian news outlets justified a war of aggression against Ukraine. Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), The Atlantic Council of the United States. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Narrative-Warfare-Final.pdf

Bentley, S. V., Greenaway, K. H., Haslam, S. A., Cruwys, T., Steffens, N. K., Haslam, C., & Cull, B. (2020). Social Identity Mapping Online. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 118(2), 213-241.

Cacioppo, J. T., & Petty, R. E. (1982). The need for cognition. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 42(1), 116-131.

Carn, M. (2023). Social media influence: a new frontier in proprietary rights? Trusts & Trustees, 29(2), 126-142.

Cruwys, T., Steffens, N. K., Haslam, S. A., Haslam, C., Jetten, J., & Dingle, G. A. (2016). Social identity mapping: A procedure for visual representation and assessment of subjective multiple group memberships. British Journal of Social Psychology, 55(4), 613-642.

De Dreu, C. K. W. (2003). Time pressure and closing of the mind in negotiation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 280-295.

Flew, T., Dulleck, U., Park, S., Fisher, C., & Isler, O. (2020). Trust and mistrust in Australian news media. Queensland University of Technology. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/216559/

Ireland, M. E., & Pennebaker, J. W. (2010). Language Style Matching in Writing: Synchrony in Essays, Correspondence, and Poetry. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 99(3), 549-571.

Lohtia, R., Donthu, N., & Hershberger, E. K. (2003). The Impact of Content and Design Elements on Banner Advertising Click-through Rates. Journal of Advertising Research, 43(4), 410-418.

Long, T. (2022) A Small State’s Guide to Influence in World Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Macnamara, J. (2018). Evaluating Public Communication: Exploring New Models, Standards, and Best Practice. London: Routledge.

Macnamara, J., Lwin, M., Adi, A., & Zerfass, A. (2016). ‘PESO’ media strategy shifts to ‘SOEP’: Opportunities and ethical dilemmas. Public Relations Review, 42(3), 377-385.

Miller, C. (2024). Directing Responses Against Illicit Influence Operations (D-RAIL). EU Disinfo Lab Report. https://www.disinfo.eu/publications/directing-responses-against-illicit-influence-operations-d-rail/

Mohr, D. C., Spring, B., Freedland, K. E., Beckner, V., Arean, P., Hollon, S. D., Ockene, J., & Kaplan, R. (2009). The Selection and Design of Control Conditions for Randomized Controlled Trials of Psychological Interventions. Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, 78(5), 275-284.

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O’Connor C. & Weatherall, J. O. (2019). The Misinformation Age: How False Beliefs Spread. New Haven: Yale University Press.76

O’Connor, A. & Shumante, M. (2018). A multidimensional network approach to strategic communication. International Journal of Strategic Communication 12(4): 399-416.

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Recorded Future. (2023). Threat Analysis: Obfuscation and AI Content in the Russian Influence Network “Doppelgänger” Signals Evolving Tactics. https://www.recordedfuture.com/russian-influence-network-doppelgangers-ai-content-tactics

Recorded Future. (2024a). Cyber Threat Analysis: Russia-Linked CopyCop Expands to Cover US Elections, Target Political Leaders. https://www.recordedfuture.com/copycop-expands-to-cover-us-elections-target-political-leaders

Reporters without Borders. (2024). 2024 World press freedom index. https://rsf.org/en/2024-world-press-freedom-index-journalism-under-political-pressure?year=2024&data_type=general

Steffens, N. K., Haslam, S. A., Reicher, S. D., Platow, M. J., Fransen, K., Yang, J., Ryan, M. K., Jetten, J., Peters, K. & Boen, F. (2013). Identity Leadership Inventory (ILI) Instrument and Scoring Guide (Version 1.0) [Measurement instrument]. https://sign.centre.uq.edu.au/files/2807/ILIGuide.pdf

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Applying Indicators

Aral, S. (2020). The Hype Machine. London: HarperCollins.

Carley, K. M. (2020). Social cybersecurity: an emerging science. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 26, 365–38.

Ecker, U.K.H., Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J., et al. (2022). The psychological drivers of misinformation belief and its resistance to correction. Nature Reviews Psychology, 1, 13–29.

Gehl, R. W. & Lawson, S. T. (2022). Social Engineering. Cambridge and London: MIT Press.

Jowett, G. S. & O’Donnell, V. J. (2019) Propaganda and Persuasion. 7th Edition. London: SAGE Publications.

Macnamara, J. (2018). Evaluating Public Communication: Exploring New Models, Standards, and Best Practice. London: Routledge.

Martin, D. A., Shapiro, J. N., & Ilhardt, J. G. (2023). Introducing the online political influence efforts dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 60(5), 868-876.

McCullough, C. & Watts, S. (2021). Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public Communication Campaigns and Their Implications for Strategic Competition with Russia. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA412-2.html

Miller, C. (2024). Directing Responses against Illicit Influence Operations (D-RAIL). EU Disinfo Lab. https://www.disinfo.eu/publications/directing-responses-against-illicit-influence-operations-d-rail/

Nimmo, B. (2020). The Breakout Scale: Measuring the Impact of Influence Operations. The Brookings Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-breakout-scale-measuring-the-impact-of-influence-operations/

O’Connor C. & Weatherall, J. O. (2019). The Misinformation Age: How False Beliefs Spread. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Pamment, J. (2020). The EU’s role in Fighting Disinformation: Crafting a Disinformation Framework. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2020/09/the-eus-role-in-fighting-disinformation-crafting-a-disinformation-framework?lang=en 77

Pamment, J. & Smith, V. (2022). Attributing Information Influence Operations: Identifying those Responsible for Malicious Behaviour Online. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/attributing-information-influence-operations-identifying-those-responsible-for-malicious-behaviour-online/244

Potter, W. J. (2017). Media Effects. London: SAGE Publications.

Prell, C. (2012). Social Network Analysis: History, Theory, Methodology. London: Sage Publications.

Influence Indicators

References

Introduction

Influence Indicators in Principle

Produced for the Defence, Science and Technology Group in the Department of Defence by UniSA and Flinders University.

Report: Text design, cover design and typesetting by Danielle Crisford